Educate | National Security
Why the Egyptian Military Fears a Captain’s Revolt
by Patrick Galey, Foreign Policy, February 16th 2012 -
CAIRO — Battered by a fractious security situation and embroiled in an escalating feud with the United States, Egypt’s ruling Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) has found it easier to take power than to govern. Now, according to Western diplomatic and Egyptian military sources, it’s facing another challenge — maintaining control over an increasingly restive officer corps.
The SCAF is deeply concerned with the growing friction between itself and mid-ranking officers, a Western diplomat with intimate knowledge of the council’s internal workings told me. As a result, the council has been increasingly reluctant to do anything that would risk causing its relationship with the Army to deteriorate further.
“[SCAF] is not giving out orders that could be disobeyed, not even potentially,” the diplomat said. “It knows it cannot ask its soldiers to do something they don’t want to do. If it asks soldiers to, say, fire on protesters, SCAF knows it could end up with something like the Russian Revolution,” the source added, in reference to an army mutiny that helped precipitate the abdication of Tsar Nicholas II in 1917.
There are signs that the SCAF has taken steps to make sure the Army isn’t put in a position where it has to bear the brunt of popular anger. For example, the much-maligned Interior Ministry’s police forces were deployed during the clashes in Cairo and elsewhere following the Port Said soccer riot. This stood in contrast to previous crackdowns, such as the now infamous “blue bra” attack in December on a female protester, when Army personnel took the lead.
Although the Army has stayed out of more recent street clashes, it remains the ultimate guarantor of the SCAF’s power. It is overseeing security at polling stations for the ongoing Shura Council elections, for example, and deployed on the streets ahead of a planned general strike. Last weekend’s walk-out went off without incident, saving the Army from the awkward decision of how aggressively to crack down on protesters.
Read the rest of the article here: http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/02/16/why_the_egyptian_military_fears_a_captains_revolt
